It was June 1914. Austrian Prince Archduke Franz Ferdinand, along

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It was June 1914. Austrian Prince Archduke Franz Ferdinand, along
with his wife Sophie, was visiting Sarajevo. Despite the threat of a terrorist attack, the two travelled in an open car and the route of their motorcade was made public. A group of Bosnian Serbs had plotted to assassinate the Franz Ferdinand when he would pass the
main street.

As the motorcade passed, one of the conspirators threw
a grenade, but missed the royal couple’s car and ended up destroying the other car.

Despite this attempt on his life, the Archduke did not alter his trip and continued with the day’s agenda. The security team however, decided to steer away from the preplanned route to avoid any dangers.

Unfortunately, the driver was not informed about the route change and he ended up taking a wrong turn. After being yelled
at, the driver realises his mistake and stops the car to make a turn.

But the car stops right in front of the Garvile Principe who
is one of the conspirators, and he shoots the couple at point blank range.
*The assassination (due to a wrong turn) started the first World War!*

This was a Black Swan event. Nassim Taleb, in his book, explains a black swan event as one that is unexpected, and which carries extreme
impact. He also adds a third attribute: that after the occurrence of the event, human nature makes us concoct explanations, making it predictable.

The Corona virus pandemic is also a black swan event
considering that it was not predicted, and the impact it has had on the world.
One of the most difficult problems we face in handling Black Swan type crisis is *‘Duration Blindness’.*