18/05/21
A CEO is at his wit’s end: Sales are in the red, the salespeople are unmotivated, and the marketing campaign sank
without a trace.
In his desperation, he hires a consultant. For Rs 50,000 a day, this man analyses the company and comes back with his findings: “Your
sales department has no vision, and your brand isn’t positioned clearly. It’s
a tricky situation. I can fix it for you—but not overnight. The measures will
require sensitivity, and, most likely, sales will fall further before things improve.”
The CEO hires the consultant. A year later, sales are still falling and the
same thing happens the next year.
Again and again, the consultant stresses that the company’s progress corresponds closely to his prediction. As sales continue their slump in the third year, the CEO fires the consultant.
A mere smoke screen, the it’ll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy is just playing out.
If the problem continues to worsen, the prediction is confirmed. If the situation improves unexpectedly,
the customer is happy, and the expert can attribute it to his prowess. Either way he wins.
Politicians routinely predict “difficult years” ahead, ask their citizens to
“tighten their belts,” and then promise to improve the situation only after
this “delicate stage” of “cleansing,” “purification,” and “restructuring.”
Naturally the citizens don’t expect any good thing to happen in this period and if it does, the politician is a hero, otherwise it is ‘I told you so.’
The best evidence of this strategy’s success is the religious zealot who
believes and preaches that before we can experience heaven on earth, the world must be destroyed. Disasters, floods, fires, death—they are all part of the larger plan and must take place. These believers will view any deterioration of the
situation as confirmation of the prophecy and any improvement as a gift
from God.
The predictions of the Third Wave by WHO may be a use of the same fallacy.
The idea is to paint the worst possible picture and if it doesn’t happen, the ‘control measures and the vaccination has worked and if the 3rd wave does happen, ‘I told you so.’
A lot of professionals use this strategy with their clients just to play it safe.
In conclusion, If someone says, “It’ll get worse before it gets better,” you should hear alarm bells ringing.
But beware, Situations do exist where things first dip, then improve. For example, a career change requires time
and often incorporates loss of pay. The reorganisation of a business also takes time. But in all these cases, we can see relatively quickly if the measures are working. The milestones are clear and verifiable. Look to these rather than to the heavens.
Don’t blindly fall for the it’ll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy,
remain positive, Lets choose hope over fear and stay blessed forever.